We’ll see if it works better than last time, but theaters in China (allegedly, says The Hollywood Reporter) will start reopening. The official start date is July 20, next Tuesday. Most of the cinemas in the world’s largest non-domestic market have been closed since January 23, just before what was intended to be a New Year’s holiday era of more than $1 billion with a series of local box office hits to be released. The six months of closures have led many studios and exhibition companies to serious monetary difficulties. However, cinemas will not only not open at the same time, but there are also two cave warnings. First, concession sales will not be allowed. Second, the projected films should last less than two hours.
This first “capture” makes sense because it’s hard to eat popcorn and drink soft drinks if you’re dressed in a mask. To my own curiosity, I did some kind of jolgorio last Monday. I turned off all the lights, turned up the volume (with headphones) as high as comfortable, put on a mask and watched Interstellar on my HDTV. yes, I’m looking to technify the perception of watching a movie in a movie dressed in a mask. The bad news is that I lost the ability to eat and have a drink while watching Nolan’s 170-minute sci-fi melodrama. The good news is that most of the time (90% of the time) I didn’t notice the mask.
The “no concession” issue is going to be a problem. After all, movie chains get most of their profits from exceptionally expensive food and beverages, to the point where you can say that the movies themselves are just promotional boxes for consumers to pay $6 for a soda and $9 for a popcorn. Even if film networks in North America need to reopen, I don’t know if you can reconcile the total variable “audience can safely watch movies if you wear a mask” with the variable complication “We have to sell snacks to make money”. Unless the theaters remain closed until the “situation” improves, I don’t know how to fix it.
The broadcast time limit is more arbitrary and potentially (film consistent with film) more consequential. So I guess Chris Nolan’s 149-minute Tenet (allegedly) probably won’t premiere in China in the short term. Honestly, I’d like Warner Bros. Asked Nolan to cut off a 120-minute edition of his temporary investment work just to see his reaction. And, yes, it’s different from when George Lucas designed a cut of less than two hours of Star Wars Episode II: attack clones in particular for IMAX theaters at a time when IMAX sets couldn’t involve longer movies. This was months after the film’s release in May 2002 (and before Hollywood films got the normal IMAX treatment) and went to charity.
If it’s a slow and stable deployment, a change from 0 to a hero in a short time, I can’t say. Cinemas attempted to open in China in March to temporarily close due to considerations of new epidemics. I have no idea who will find out which spaces are designated as “low risk” or which variables will be used to make such a decision, but I think we will get more data in the coming days, especially if it goes planned. Unsurprisingly, the mask will be mandatory with a 30% limit on seats and a 50% limit on schedules. All price ticket sales will be made digitally and in advance.
The first movies will be older movies, but unfortunately the 120-minute limit means there are no reissues for Inception or Furious 7. There have been a number of recent Hollywood premieres in 2019, such as Little Women, 1917, Jojo. Rabbit and Marriage Story, which were approved for China but never made it to theaters. The same goes for the big few of 2020s such as Bad Boys For Life, Sonic the Hedgehog and (relatively) Dolittle. Can Bad Boys For Life break into China enough to exponentially smoke its $419 million global pool? Can Sonic the Hedgehog ($306 million) play as a Pokémon Detective ($93 million in China last year) and spend $400 million worldwide? Can Dolittle save a small face in China?
Conversely, if China’s delayed box office hits make a noise comparable to what they played in January, how long Bad Boys for Life will be the biggest global hit of the year? The three most important new year’s premieres last year, The Wandering Earth ($699 million in 2019), My Country, My People ($450 million) and The Captain ($416 million) surpassed $419 million in Bad Boys For Life. In 2018, Operation Red Sea ($579 million) and Detective Chinatown 2 ($544 million) flourished in China when Black Panther erupted in North America (and elsewhere). Needless to say, Detective Chinatown 3 and The Rescue flirted with late $450 million to $550 million.
Assuming it goes as planned (and the audience appears), the conundrum will be to balance delayed Hollywood titles and delayed local titles with scheduled Hollywood greatest hits and Chinese box office hits still on the table. I can’t believe China hurts the proverbial Wolf Warrior 2 ($854 million in 2017) or Ne Zha ($720 million in 2019) so Jojo Rabbit or Sonic the Hedgehog can enjoy the sun. Unfortunately, due to this annoying requirement of 120 minutes or less, we may not see James Cameron’s Avatar (who earned $205 million in China in 2009/2010) return to theaters to win the world crown at the Avengers box office. . Endgame (which grossed $620 million in China last year in ten times more auditoriums).
I studied the film industry, both academically and informally, and with an analysis in the workplace, for almost 30 years. I have written extensively on all these topics over the more than 11 years. My media for film reviews, workplace reviews and film prejudice scholarships have included The Huffington Post, Salon and Film Threat. Follow me on @ScottMendelson and like The Ticket Booth on Facebook.