A new ballot from conservative election company Rasmussen reports that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan.
The Democratic presidential ticket has noted a significant shift in the polls since President Joe Biden made a resolution to withdraw from the race on July 21 and endorse Harris. Now officially the Democratic nominee, Harris has jumped in the polls, beating Trump, the Republican. candidate, in many national polls and in some swing states, while Biden is lagging behind.
Trump has been dismissive of polls, saying last week that he is “way ahead. “At a news conference Thursday, he also talked about 2016, when many polls showed him trailing Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. In the end, Trump won a narrow victory in the Electoral College despite squandering the popular vote.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for emailed comment Sunday.
Rasmussen’s new poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, shows Harris narrowly leading Trump by one point in a head-to-head matchup. The vice president has the support of 48% of Michiganders, compared to 47% for the former president.
Harris’ lead expands to three issues when third-party applicants are factored into the voting slate. In this scenario, Harris has 47% of respondents and Trump has 44%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each earned 1% of the matrix. The vote included 1,093 voters likely from Michigan.
Michigan is considered an undecided state, which may be key in determining which candidate ultimately wins the Electoral College. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, but Biden regained the state for Democrats in 2020. Before Trump’s victory in 2016, Michigan hadn’t opted for a Republican since 1988.
In particular, Rasmussen’s new vote in Pennsylvania, held on the same dates, shows a close race. In this poll, Trump has a 1-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Harris. However, the Democrat has a 1-point advantage if third-party applicants are taken into account.
Head to head, Trump has 47% and Harris 46% in Pennsylvania. Including independent candidates, Harris remains stable at 46%, but Trump drops two points to 45%. The vote included 1,312 likely Pennsylvania voters.
Like Michigan, Pennsylvania opted for Trump in 2016 and then re-elected Biden in 2020. The eastern state also hadn’t supported a Republican since 1988, before Trump’s victory.
Harris leads Trump in the Michigan and Pennsylvania election averages. According to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight poll, Harris leads Trump with an average of 2. 6% in Michigan and about 1. 4% in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Harris averages 45. 9%, compared to 43. 3% for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight. The Democrat has 46. 1% in Pennsylvania and Trump 44. 7%.
The Silver Bulletin of Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight who parted ways with ABC last year, shows Harris averaging 46%, compared to Trump’s 43. 1% in Michigan. Silver’s average in Pennsylvania has Harris at 46. 2% and Trump at 44. 7%.
Jason Lemon is a weekend editor at Newsweek, founded in Brooklyn, New York. Before taking over as editor, Jason’s reporting focused on United States politics and foreign affairs. He joined Newsweek in 2018 and in the past had worked as a founder at a Middle Eastern media startup called StepFeed. He also worked for a year as a contributor to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and signed for The Christian Science Monitor, The Palm Beach. Publish, Al Fanar Media and A Magazine. He is a graduate of the American University of Beirut in Lebanon and Andrews University in Michigan. Jason can be reached by emailing j. lemon@newsweek. com. Languages: English, Spanish, French and Levantine Arabic.
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