There have been many hypotheses about how the recovery could take after the closure and economic downturn that the United States has endured since Covid-19. While there were (and perhaps still some) hopes of a V-shaped recovery, it is transparent that this looks more like an L, U or W shape or a Nike swoosh.
While there is expected to see an uptick in negative GDP expansion in june 32.9% in the September quarter, with the highest continued number of coronavirus cases, the recovery appears to stabilize.
Initial task schedules have more in the last two weeks
Initial applications for unemployment have skyrocketed since the March 21 report of 3.3 million. They peaked the following week at 6.9 million and fell for 15 weeks to 1.3 million on July 11. Keep in mind that even though they had fallen to 1.3 million, it is necessarily double the highest figure ever recorded in a singles week.
Unfortunately, two weeks ago 1.42 million programs were shelved and last Thursday there were 1.43 million initial programs. Although the accumulation has been small in the last two weeks, if they are kept around those levels, this indicates that the initial wave of returning to the paintings has slowed.
Oxford Economist tracker recovers
Gregory Daco, the leading U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, follows six parameters to assess the functionality of the economy. In his most recent report, he wrote: “The foundations of this recovery are being broken under the weight of a poorly controlled fitness crisis. Our Recovery Tracker fell for the third time in five weeks in the week ending July 10. Fourth week in a row; demand fell for the moment week in a row, its biggest drop in 4 months; and employment has changed.”
New York Fed’s indicator seems to be moving at a slow pace
An index that estimates the annual expansion rate of GDP is the weekly economic index of new York federal, or WEI. Estimates the annual expansion rate if the existing one continues for one year.
The WEI Index is an index of ten signs of genuine economic activity, scaled to fit the four-quarter GDP expansion rate. Represents the non-unusual component of the series that covers customer behavior, labor market, and production. The WEI is an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or its president, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or its president, the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.
Its parts are:
In the first two months of this year, the index showed annual GDP expansion ranging from 1.2% to 2%. It began to turn negative at the end of March and its lowest reading was 11.5% at the end of April.
The index showed a slow but steady improvement until early July, when it encountered some obstacles along the way with its recent maximum reading at 6.6%. This index tracks whether the improvement can be re-on tracked or stopped as well.
Consumer sentiment is at the forefront
The University of Michigan Institute for Social Research reported: “Consumer sentiment fell more in late July due to the continued resurgence of coronavirus. Over the more than 4 months, the sentiment rate has remained out of trend, with an average decrease of 25%. it was in 2019. The expectations rate went back to a six-year low first recorded in May, which offers no indication that consumers are expecting the recession to end soon.”
I provide independent studies on generation corporations and in the past I was one of two analysts who made a decision on Atlantic Trust’s generation holdings (Invesco’s highest point of
I conducted independent studies on generation corporations and in the past I was one of two analysts who decided on the generation assets of Atlantic Trust (Invesco’s highest net worth organization), a company that manages $15 billion. Before joining the Atlantic Trust, I was an Internet security software analyst for Smith Barney (where I wrote the industry’s most comprehensive “Internet Security Software: The Ultimate Internet Infrastructure” industry report) and an enterprise server hardware analyst at Salomon Brothers. Before hiring an equity analyst, I spent 16 years at IBM in various sales and production positions. I have a B.S. in Industrial Engineering at Stanford University and a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Sussex, England.